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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 81

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to PIT 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 19-C.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 15. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 36 for 21 yards (30-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model