4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to BAL 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -3.36 EP
KICK -2.35 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.19 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP