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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 3

New York Giants 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 21-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP