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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to NYG 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 11 yards (48-P.Johnson, 45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 28, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model