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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to NYG 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-57-B.VanSumeren.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.98 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model