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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to NYG 24, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 3 yards (57-B.VanSumeren; 81-G.Calcaterra).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model