Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 10

(8:12) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to NYG 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 45 for 15 yards (41-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model