4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 24-J.Mason left tackle to LA 25 for 3 yards (44-A.Witherspoon; 43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.34 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model