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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 13 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 5-T.Atwell to SF 12 for 3 yards (0-S.Womack).

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.82 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model