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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to LA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 81-A.Trammell pushed ob at LA 29 for 13 yards (26-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.38 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP