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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 43
Los Angeles Rams 13 – San Francisco 49ers 20
What Actually Happened
(12:14) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to SF 41 for 2 yards (69-S.Joseph).
The Three Options
GO
+1.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.75 EP
- 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
KICK
-0.62 EP
- 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 56% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.26 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
