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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to LA 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.53 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model