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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 20

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 4-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model