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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to KC 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-R.James to KC 32 for 21 yards (20-D.Marlowe).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP