Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(:19) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass incomplete short left to 1-Q.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP

What Happened

59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.26 EP
41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -1.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model