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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(:15) 5-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP