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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.49 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model