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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 5-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to LAC 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP