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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.05 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP