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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP