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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to KC 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model