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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to KC 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model