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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 75

Denver Broncos 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass deep left to 89-B.Johnson to DEN 46 for 21 yards (5-D.Deablo) [9-T.Wilson].

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -1.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model