Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims to DEN 29 for 13 yards (36-C.Bolton). PENALTY on DEN-37-R.Moss, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model