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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 55

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model