Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 66

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 64 yards to LV 2, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-B.Niemann.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.36 EP
73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model