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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 73

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to LV 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.14 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model