Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 69

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(14:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LV 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.98 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model