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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model