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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 8-B.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.79 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model