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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is BLOCKED (59-J.Pryor), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger, RECOVERED by WAS-0-J.Whittaker at WAS 29. 0-J.Whittaker pushed ob at DAL 20 for 51 yards (99-C.Golston).

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model