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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 51

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 8-B.Robinson pushed ob at DAL 40 for 11 yards (21-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.29 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model