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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 17

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 6-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-T.Addington, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.01 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP