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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 46

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 61-J.Good-Jones reported in as eligible. 8-B.Robinson right guard to DAL 44 for 2 yards (6-D.Wilson, 33-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model