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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CIN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 25 for 3 yards (31-V.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model