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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-J.Driskel pass deep left to 18-Dav.Bell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model