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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones to CIN 40 for 15 yards (42-T.Fields).

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model