4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to CIN 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model