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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to CIN 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 17 for 9 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.49 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP