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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 10-B.Robbins punts 33 yards to CLE 43, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model