Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 41

(4:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NO 22, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 31 for 9 yards (12-K.Hodge; 49-L.McCullough).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.87 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model