Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 41 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(6:39) 39-L.Hedley punts 50 yards to ATL 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 20-D.Alford to ATL 32 for 1 yard (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.32 EP
64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model