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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 6

New Orleans Saints 31 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP