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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 2 at the 2
Atlanta Falcons 17 – New Orleans Saints 31
What Actually Happened
(1:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Robinson.
The Three Options
GO
+3.16 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
- 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +0.28 EP
KICK
+1.78 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
