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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 6

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(:58) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP