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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 89

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 27 yards to ATL 38, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.59 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 89, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model