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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model