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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 39-L.Hedley punts 40 yards to ATL 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP