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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to NO 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model