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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 14 for 12 yards (59-A.Smith; 27-R.Grant). INJURY UPDATE: ATL 55-K.Elliss, knee, QUESTIONABLE to return.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model